Capture Prospects

Inspired by the prospects table presented by Bluewater magazine in their July, 2006 issue (No. 56) I have reviewed the past twenty odd years of captures (1984-2005) and, with a some consideration of historic monthly effort and discounting for the extra effort that goes into Lae Titles years, produced a table based on those figures. Note in the case of billfish the table is based on the years starting 1994 which is when billfish were first fished seriously by a significant number of Lae anglers. The exception in prior years was Bob Gosbell who, in his revamped WWII rescue boat Beringa, pioneered Billfish Alley.

The interpretation of statistics, particularly where fishermen are involved, can of course be highly contentious! Interpretation should ideally account fully for the effort invested in producing the raw numbers and while I have given some consideration based on my perception of effort, this is a variable which remains wide open. The club has never kept any record of 'effort'. Other variables may be weather (less effort during the SE season July- October) and effects of El Nino, water temperature etc.

Note that Dogtooth Tuna are, I believe, not a migratory species, spending their lives adjacent to their home reef. The location of their home territory (the 'dog pound'!) in relation to this reef varies according to the prevailing current and depth possibly influenced by water temperature. Effort directed at dogtooth has been very sparce over the years so that monthly capture numbers are essentially meaningless.

For those who would like to place there own interpretation on the number, I have appended the table at the bottom of this page. All input and comment is of course welcome -  email

Ian Bull